The reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the National Capital Region went down to 1.39 from 1.43 and it projects the number to go below 1 by the third week of September, OCTA Research said in a report Wednesday.

The reproduction number of 1.39 is ''below the critical level cutoff of 1.4,'' OCTA Research said.

''Based on current trends, it possible that the reproduction number in the NCR may decrease below 1 by the third week of September,'' OCTA Reasearch said.

NCR averaged 4, 637 new cases daily from August 26 to September 1, 12 percent higher than the previous week, it added.

''Until then, we expect new cases to continue to increase, albeit at a slower growth rate,'' OCTA said.

It added that the positivity rate in NCR is at 24 percent. Hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 patients was at 69 percent and ICU utilization was at 71 percent.

Quezon City, Marikina and Caloocan have average daily attack rates of below 30, which is at high incidence level, while 14 have rates of above 30, considered critical.

Six local government units saw reproduction numbers go down from to high incidence level from critical. These are Quezon City, Manila, Valenzuela, Pasay, Las Pinas and Caloocan. DMS