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9月24日のまにら新聞から

Business sentiment is less optimistic in Q3, for Q4 and the next 12 months: BSP

[ 788 words|2022.9.24|英字 (English) ]

Business sentiment weakened in the third quarter as the overall confidence index (CI) declined to 26.1 percent from 35.4 percent in the second quarter, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said Friday.

The lower index resulted from the combined effects of a decrease in the percentage of optimists and an increase in the percentage of pessimists.

The respondents’ less optimistic sentiment in the third quarter was attributed to: (a) higher inflation (i.e., faster rise in prices of consumer goods, services, raw materials and production costs), (b) rising fuel prices, (c) decline in sales and demand, (d) peso depreciation and (e) the continuing public health threat of COVID-19.

For the next quarter, the business sentiment weakened for the second consecutive quarter as the overall CI decreased to 43.9 percent from 46.4 percent a quarter ago.

For the next 12 months, the business sentiment also declined further as the overall CI decreased to 57.7 percent from the previous quarter’s survey result of 59.9 percent.

By type of trading firm, a less favorable outlook was observed among exporters, importers and domestic-oriented firms as these types of trading firms registered lower CIs in the third quarter from a quarter ago. Conversely, a more optimistic outlook was noted for dual-activity firms.

For the fourth quarter, the outlook was less buoyant for importers and exporters, more optimistic for domestic-oriented firms and steady for dual-activity firms.

Meanwhile, the outlook for the next 12 months was less upbeat for importers, more favorable for exporters and dual-activity firms but unchanged for domestic-oriented firms.

The CI across all sectors moderated in the third quarter indicating that business sentiment of firms in the construction, services, wholesale and retail trade and the industry sectors were less positive compared to the previous quarter’s survey results.

Meanwhile, the outlook for the fourth quarter of the respondent firms was less optimistic across sectors, except for those in the services sector whose outlook turned more favorable.

For the next 12 months, the less upbeat outlook of firms in the industry and services sectors outweighed the more optimistic view of businesses in the construction and wholesale and retail trade sectors.

Consistent with the national trend, the outlook of firms on their own business operations, based on the volume of business activity and total orders booked, was less optimistic in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, the outlook on the volume of business activity was steady for the fourth quarter but less upbeat for the next 12 months.

The average capacity utilization of the industry and construction sectors was unchanged at 72.7 percent in the third quarter. In particular, the average capacity utilization of the industry sector in third quarter slightly increased to 72.2 percent (from 71.8 percent in second quarter).

Firms expected that their financial condition and access to credit will be tighter in third uarter as their corresponding indices declined further to -21.2 percent (from -18.2 percent) and -2.9 percent (from -0.4 percent), respectively.

The employment outlook index declined to 22.7 percent for Q4 2022 (from 25.4 percent in the second quarter survey results) and was steady at 30 percent (from 30.7 percent) for the next 12 months.

The lower reading in the third quarter suggests that hiring intentions may turn less favorable for the next quarter, while employment prospects for the next 12 months remain optimistic.

On one hand, the percentage of businesses in the industry sector with expansion plans for the fourth quarter increased to 23.4 percent (from 17.9 percent in the second quarter survey results).

On the other hand, the percentage of industry firms with expansion plans for the next 12 months decreased to 23.2 percent (from 24.4 percent).

Businesses expected the peso may continue to depreciate against the US dollar and the peso borrowing and inflation rates may rise in the third quarter and fourth quarter, and the next 12 months.

Further, businesses expected that inflation may breach the upper end of the government’s 2?4 percent inflation target range for 2022-2023. In particular, firms were expecting that inflation may settle at 5.6 percent in the third quarter and fourth quarter and at 5.4 percent for the next 12 months.

The third quarter BES was conducted during the period July 6 ? August 15. There were 1,504 firms surveyed nationwide, consisting of 584 companies in the NCR and 920 firms in Areas Outside NCR, covering all 16 regions nationwide.

Samples were drawn from the Top 7,000 corporations ranked based on total assets in 2016 from the Bureau van Dijk (BvD) database.

The nationwide survey response rate for this quarter was higher at 58.8 percent (from 51.7 percent in Q2 2022). The response rate was higher for both the NCR at 64 percent (from 50.8 percent) and AONCR at 55.4 percent (from 52.3 percent). BSP