Despite the continued increase in rice inflation, the Department of Agriculture said that the price of rice in the market is expected to lower in the coming days or weeks as the harvest season has started and is expected to peak until next month.

During the Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon, public briefing, Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa, Department of Agriculture spokesman, noted that the continued increase in rice inflation is not alarming.

"The inflation increased by 3.4 percent this February and the contribution of food inflation is actually big at 56.1 percent. But it is not alarming because if we are going to analyze the data, the base data of rice in previous year was low and it will change by August and September," he explained.

"Based on our data the price of rice has started to go down. If we look at January, February, the prevailing price for well-milled and regular-milled rice ranges from 52 to 53 pesos. But in the latter part of February up to now it ranges from 49 to 50-peso level for local well-milled and regular-milled rice including the imported," he added.

De Mesa also noted that despite the El Nino, the prices of rice are expected to go down because of the incoming harvest season.

"We are expecting the prices to further go down because this March is the start of our harvest. It will peak by March and April and we are expecting lower farmgate prices which in turn will drive down the price of rice in the market in the coming days or weeks," he said.

"Based on our last data the farm gate price is at 25 to 26 pesos but the NFA bought rice for 19 to 23 pesos. So if we're going to get the average, say 22; normally ang rule of thumb, times two should be the price at the market. So, we are expecting a much lower price of rice in the coming days because of the lower farm gate price in the coming days," he added.

De Mesa also mentioned that only small areas of rice farms were so far affected by El Nino which will not have a significant impact in the coming harvest season.

"The effect of El Nino, based on our last data, in terms of area is about 6,000 or 7,000 hectares, that’s only about .5 percent of the total area planted with rice, so this is very small in terms of total rice area. And in terms of total production we are expecting minimal effect, about .11 percent of the total harvest is what we are expecting," he added.

"The timing of the worst effect of El Nino did not happen during the productive stage but only during the harvest season, so it doesn't really affect the productivity of rice. So, we are still expecting good results on the production of rice this year," he added. Robina Asido/DMS