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11月10日のまにら新聞から

Good opportunity for Duterte to "reset" Philippine-US relations under Biden administration, say experts

[ 572 words|2020.11.10|英字 (English) ]

President Rodrigo Duterte might see an opportunity to "reset" the relations between the Philippines and the United States under President-elect Joe Biden.

The incoming new US government, on the other hand, could have an idea of how to handle an "impulsive" and "eccentric" leader like Duterte.

These were according to Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at The University of New South Wales in Australia, and Jay Batongbacal, professor at the University of the Philippines College of Law and director of the university's Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, respectively.

"This is a new opportunity, it's not (former President Barack) Obama, it's not (President Donald) Trump. It's a new president and thus, Duterte himself see the opportunity that provides to reset the relationship with US in a way that concerns his sense of defending the Philippines," Thayer said in a virtual forum with the foreign press.

Duterte considered Obama as his critic when the latter was still the US president. Obama had been critical about the alleged extrajudicial killings in the Philippines due to the Duterte government's war on drugs.

The Filipino leader, meanwhile, considers Trump as his friend as the outgoing US president never openly criticized his administration.

While Biden was Obama's vice president, Thayer expressed belief that the incoming American leader does not carry baggage that Duterte should be worried about.

"I think Biden would be careful not to close his options of. So, as I keep saying it before, the US, I think will be much more understanding," he said.

Batongbacal, on the other hand, expressed belief that the US State Department, through its Embassy in the Philippines and various diplomats who have worked in the country, would already have some idea how to handle Duterte for the remaining two years of his administration.

"I think they will notice that he has certain eccentricity, shall we say, and the tendency for impulsive decisions and reactions. Knowledge of that and experience of that in the past couple of years will already filter up to the State Department leadership when it is installed. And I believe they will work from there," he explained.

On the fate of the Visiting Forces Agreement, the termination of which has been ordered suspended by Duterte, Batongbacal said it would not make sense if its abrogation would push through.

He said the ball is entirely on Philippine court since the US has indicated it would not stop Manila if it would finally end the treaty.

The UP professor said that it would be more disadvantageous for the Philippines to abrogate the VFA since the country has been "deriving tangible benefits" from the US military in the past few years.

He cited the Marawi siege in 2017, noting the US help in intelligence and reconnaissance operation against the terrorists.

If the VFA would be terminated, he said America would just adjust its policies and the deployment of its troops.

Last February, the Philippine government sent a notice to the US to abrogate the VFA after America cancelled the visa of Senator Ronald dela Rosa allegedly on the issue of human rights violations.

Dela Rosa was Duterte's former police chief responsible for the war on drugs.

But last June, Duterte ordered the Department of Foreign Affairs to inform the US to suspend the process of VFA termination for six months.

Malacanang earlier said that the suspension could be further extended by another six months. Celerina Monte/DMS